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    November 30

    中国消费增长放缓

    Signs are emerging that the anxiety gripping consumers around the world is spreading to China, says Jing Ulrich, managing director and chairman of China equities at JPMorgan.

    摩根大通中国证券市场部主席兼董事总经理李晶(Jing Ulrich)表示,目前有迹象表明,笼罩着全球消费者的焦虑情绪正在蔓延到中国。

    “Despite the global economic slowdown, falling stock markets, multiple natural disasters and a stagnant housing sector, Chinese consumer spending had been remarkably resilient for most of this year – until what appears to have been markedly slower growth following the Golden Week holiday in early October,” she says.

    她表示:“尽管全球经济放缓、股市持续下跌、自然灾害频发以及房地产行业陷入停滞,但在今年的大多数时间里,中国的消费支出一直表现得相当有弹性。直到10月初的黄金周(Golden Week)假期之后,增长似乎明显放缓了。”

    Ms Ulrich says leading Chinese department stores have recorded lighter traffic in recent weeks and the outlook is for continued deceleration in sales growth.

    李晶表示,近几周来,各大百货公司的生意较为冷清,预计销售增长将会持续减速。

    “Our discussions with operators have found a similar slowdown among some apparel and luxury goods retailers. Even mass-market food retailers and fast-food chains have shown signs of moderation since mid-October.”

    “我们在与经营者讨论时发现,一些服饰和奢侈品零售商也出现了类似的放缓。甚至连大众食品零售商和快餐连锁店,10月中旬以来也已显示出增长放缓的迹象。”

    She believes the slowing Chinese economy presents a major test to consumer resilience, but retains an optimistic long-term view of consumption.

    她认为,中国经济日益放缓是对消费弹性的重大考验,但从长期来看,她仍对消费情况持乐观态度。

    “The government’s plans to expand the social safety net should reduce the need for precautionary saving and encourage consumption in the long run,” she says.

    她表示:“政府扩大社会保障网络的计划,应会减少预防性储蓄的需求,从长期角度讲会鼓励消费。”

    “In the near term, however, consumer confidence will be tied to the government’s success at reviving the country’s property and stock markets, and improving employment and income security.”

    “不过,从短期来看,消费者信心将取决于政府能否成功地再度激活国内楼市和股市,及改善就业和收入保障状况。”

    November 23

    燃油税啊燃油税

           学习学习.....

     

     

    China is taking the opportunity created by low oil prices to prepare a shake-up of its pricing system that could include a new fuel tax and fewer price controls, the government’s top planning body said yesterday.

    中国最高规划部门昨日表示,中国正准备利用国际原油价格下跌带来的机会,对其成品油定价体系进行改革,可能包括实施新的燃油税和放松价格管制。

    The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said the government was studying a series of reforms to oil pricing that officials say are designed to stimulate more efficient use of energy and encourage greater use of smaller cars.

    中国国家发改委(NDRC)称,政府正研究一系列油价定价机制改革。官员称,此举的目的是刺激人们以更高效率利用能源,并鼓励人们更多使用小型汽车。

    Although the NDRC gave few details of the substance of the reform or the timing, the statement follows heavy speculation in the Chinese media in recent days about forthcoming policy changes and analysts said it indicates that the government must be close to making a final decision.

    尽管发改委没有给出有关具体改革内容或时间的细节,但声明发布之前几天,中国媒体纷纷对即将来临的政策改变进行了猜测。分析师表示,这表明,政府肯定已接近做出最后决定。

    “This shows the NDRC is going to issue the new policy soon,” said Qiu Xiaofeng, analyst from China Merchants Securities. “This is absolutely good news for Sinopec and PetroChina [China’s two oil refiners] and it will also promote the sale of compact cars with low emissions.”

    中国招商证券(China Merchants Securities)分析师邱晓峰(音译)表示:“这表明,发改委将很快发布新政策。对中国两家炼油企业中石化(Sinopec)和中石油(PetroChina)来说,这是绝对利好的消息,同时这也将提高排放较低的小排量汽车的销售。”

    China has been debating the introduction of a fuel tax for nearly a decade and the discussion has been particularly intense over the past three years, pitting environmental and energy security concerns against several powerful vested interests.

    近10年来,中国一直在辩论实施燃油税,过去3年里的争论尤其激烈,环境和能源安全担忧与多个强大的既得利益集团之间各执一词。

    Officials have also discussed for a number of years a move to more free-market oil prices rather than the system of government- dictated prices that have helped at times to damp inflation when oil prices were high but at the cost of imposing heavy losses on the country’s refiners.

    许多年来,官员们也在讨论实行更加市场化、而不是由政府主导的定价体系。政府定价固然在原油价格高企的时候有助于抑制通胀,但代价是造成该国炼油商严重亏损。

    Under one version of the reform being discussed, the government would introduce the long-awaited tax on retail petrol and diesel but would soften the blow to consumers by cutting petrol prices. Petrol in China is about 50 per cent more than the retail price in the US. However, brokerage CLSA said it expected a 15 per cent price cut to be announced next week.

    正在讨论的改革的一个版本是,政府将推出期待已久的零售汽油和柴油税,但将通过降价减轻对消费者的冲击。和美国相比,中国汽油零售价格大约高出50%,不过,经纪商里昂证券(CLSA)表示,预计下周将宣布下调15%。